We here at Multi-Candidate Field Dynamics are still very
excited about all of the contests to come in this wild primary process. But because
we are approaching end game in the primaries, we thought we would pivot today to
a quick look at what the general election might look like. This will touch on
the basics, not be a comprehensive evaluation.
The Electoral College:
Don’t overweight Ohio and Florida
Ohio
and Florida are essential for Republicans to win in 2016, but not for
Democrats. A lot of attention is paid to those states and rightly so. They have
lots of Electoral College votes, and neither party has a lock on them. It is
often assumed that the winner in Ohio or Florida will win the election. Had the
Democrats added either of these states in 2000 or 2004 they would have
prevailed. But since 2008, the electoral map has changed, and Ohio and Florida
are no longer essential for Democrats.
If you give Democrats the states
they have won in every election since 1992 that amounts to 242 electoral votes. A few of those states, such as Pennsylvania and
Wisconsin may be contested, but a Democrat who dropped these states has likely
already lost. In 2016 Democrats also are favored to varying degrees in the
three states that they won in either 2004 or 2008 -- Iowa, New Hampshire and
New Mexico. This puts the Democrats at 257 electoral votes, or 13 shy of winning. These 13 votes are most attainable from
Nevada and Colorado, since Obama’s margins over his rivals in these states were
greater than in any others not included in the 257. Indeed, under the current
electoral map Colorado and Nevada would put the Democratic nominee at 272
electoral votes (in the 2008 map these states had more votes). If Democrats struggle with white voters and
find themselves in danger of losing Iowa or New Hampshire, they could still
prevail by carrying Virginia, a state where Democrats are 6-1 in top-statewide
races since 2005. That’s why Florida and
Ohio function much more as must win states for Republicans than as ultimate
bellwethers. This was missed by the chattering classes throughout much of 2012
because Ohio looked like a state where Obama had a better than average lead.
But in the end Ohio returned to form with a pro-Obama margin slimmer than
margins in states constituting the 272 electoral-vote total described above. This is also why the Karl Rove Ohio freak-out
was so ridiculous because by that point Ohio was no longer looking decisive
despite its place in the pre-election prognostication.
Quick Look at
Demographics
We
understand there’s far more to electoral analysis than demographic groups. Nor are we even close to the stage when it’s
time to predict group vote totals. But
for rough analysis it’s useful to divide the electorate into five major voting
groups: African-Americans, Other-Non Whites, White Evangelical Christians,
White Christians (non-Evangelical), and White non-Christians. Three
of these groups, African-Americans, Other Non-Whites, and White Non-Christians
strongly favor Democrats. The other two groups favor Republicans. White
Evangelicals Christians do so very strongly. White Christians (non-Evangelical)
also prefer the G.O.P. by large although not overwhelming margins. Very roughly, in this election Democratic
groups should make up about 40% of the electorate and Republican groups should
be about 60%, However Democrats will almost certainly run stronger in their 40%
than Republicans will with their 60%. When reviewing polls and match ups, it’s
crucial to make sure that the electorate is properly weighted in these
demographic categories to be valid. While it is mostly forgotten, the final RCP
average between Romney and Obama showed the race nearly tied. But in the end
Obama won by nearly 4%. Similar errors will repeat unless the demographics are
correct and mis-weighting may help explain why state polling was more correct
than national polling. It’s easier to peg the demographics correctly in state
elections. Since these demographics in
the electorate roughly mirror the demographics of the country having an
electorate that looks wildly different from these benchmark is just not
reasonable.
Conclusion:
We will dig in more as we formally get nominees or as we now
have slower days in the primary, but it’s a good place to start with these
quick points on the states and groups Democrats need to succeed.
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