Why this particular Chaos is poor for Trump politically
This week was supposed to be about why healthcare politics are particularly fraught, and I am definitely going to return to that in the following weeks.
But for now, it is important to zero in on the Chaos that follows the aftermath of the horrific mass shootings now one weekend back as well as the Jeffrey Epstein “Suicide”...
Tuesday, August 13, 2019
Monday, June 24, 2019
Why So Many Candidates:
So, this week begins the Debates in the Democratic primary process (For those of you in greater Boston, I am hosting a watch party. It will be awesome:
https://www.facebook.com/events/409366673000254/)
But given that my party is on the 2nd night of the Debates, which will in sum feature 20 candidates, I have been reflecting on the size and nature of the field (remembering that there...
Wednesday, January 30, 2019
The risk of Howard Schultz.
So,
as you all may have seen, former Starbucks CEO and former Democrat,
Howard Schultz, is contemplating entering the Presidential race as an
Independent candidate. This is bad news based at best on a willful
misreading of the facts. There are lot of reasons why this would be an
ill-fated effort. But let’s start with a basic point. It is almost
impossible for Schultz to get to a point...
Thursday, January 24, 2019
An early take on the Democratic field.
Welcome back to
week two of the New Scorecard. As promised we take our very first look at
the Democratic field. A lot has been going on, even since last
week, and it can be hard to keep track of it all. So this is merely a
helpful guide to thinking of candidates in four distinct categories....
Wednesday, January 16, 2019
Welcome back to Scorecard Lesson One for the New Year – Remember the Rules
It has undeniably been a rough two years with Donald Trump as
President, and, while I have continued a decent amount of blogging in other
venues, The Scorecard has regrettably lapsed. That ends today. You may
notice a departure from the relatively non-partisan take adopted in 2016,
because, as I look around, I see pundits on both sides of the aisle wishing
fervently for Donald Trump to be...
Saturday, November 19, 2016
Why the Clinton Strategy worked in Connecticut but not in the Electoral College.
I am not going to hide my shock at the result. Nor will I
attempt to claim I saw it coming when I didn’t. However when it comes to
Connecticut, given the national surprise, I feel I fared as well as could be
expected. At a basic level, Clinton was in no danger in Connecticut. She won
here by more than Kerry in 2004. Where the election day pattern held up better
than I could have imagined was in...
Monday, November 7, 2016
Final Prediction
Top Lines
Clinton electoral vote 333 Trump 205 electoral vote
Senate 51D versus 49R
House R’s 229 versus D’s 206
Clinton States
Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida,
Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New
Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oregon,
Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia,...
Final Polling Update #22 and an apology
This is, of course, the final polling update of the 2016 cycle
as tomorrow is election day.We have a small confession to make. We have used
RCP averages throughout this entire cycle because frankly the site is easy to
use, but that ease has come at a price. As we have watched more carefully we have
noticed a minor skewing of their averages.
RCP’s clear inclusion of narrative skewing polls at...
Final Early Vote Numbers in (Nevada, Florida, North Carolina,) Trend a Touch Toward Democrats.
We have
nearly final numbers from Early Voting in these three key Battleground states, and
things have improved by a decent bit for Democrats, although one state is
lagging slightly.
Nevada:
The
Nevada 2016 early vote electorate looks pretty much identical to the Nevada eearly
electorate of 2012. In Swing...
Sunday, November 6, 2016
The difference in the election comes down to turnout and margins amongst non-whites.
When you dig around in the numbers behind the polls, the key
variables consistently center on the racial composition of the electorate and
margins amongst non-whites. A great
number of people were surprised to see Hillary Clinton spending time in Arizona,
and two recent public polls from Arizona each show Donald Trump leading by 5
points there. However, the key thing
here is margin with...
Thursday, November 3, 2016
Our Theory of Elections.
As we head into the home stretch, we will be making a prediction as to who we believe will win in every single federal contest just as we did for every single primary contest. But our basic guiding principle remains the same; past election results are the best guide to future results. If there is a conflict between the polling and the past, the past should be chosen. Change obviously happens,...
